The Ministry of Commerce and Industry released the latest trade figures for October on 14^th November 2024. India’s overall trade deficit from April- October 2023 to April-October 2024 increased by $14.98 billion. This indicates an increase of 10.02%. India is witnessing a trade deficit since 1980. India's merchandise deficit reached an 11-month high at $27.1 billion. 

India’s total export for April-October 2024 is $468.27 billion compared to $436.48 billion in the April-October Segment of 2023 with an estimated export growth of 7.28%. The import value for the same period in 2023 was $496.50 billion which noted an increase to $531.51 billion in 2024 for the same period with a growth rate of 7.05%.

Despite the significant increase in exports imports have also increased with greater momentum. For October merchandise exports registered a growth of 17.23%, estimating around $39.20 billion compared to $39.20 billion in 2023. Merchandise imports for the same period increased from $63.86 billion to $66.84 billion.  For the April-October period, cumulative growth was about 3.18%, rising from $244.51 billion in 2023 to $252.28 billion in 2024. Merchandise imports during April-October 2024 were $416.93 Billion as compared to $ 394.18 Billion during April-October 2023.

Rice exports increased the most, with 85.79% growth from $0.57 billion in October 2023 to $1.05 billion in October 2024. Electronic goods, at 45.69%, engineering goods, at 39.37%, RMG of all textiles, at 35.06%, and organic and inorganic chemicals, at 27.35%, all registered positive growth. Non-petroleum, non-gems, and jewellery exports in October 2024 were estimated at $31.36 billion compared to $24.56 billion in October 2023, registering an increase of 27.68%.

Service exports for the month of October 2024 are $34.02 billion compared to $28.05 billion in October 2023.  While service exports for the period of April-October 2024 are $215.98 billion as compared to $191.97 billion in April-October 2023. Service imports for the period of April-October 2024 are $114.57 billion, while it's $102.32 billion for the same period.

Import of silver, pearl, precious and semi-precious stones, coal, coke and briquettes, leather and leather products, newsprint, transport equipment, project goods, fertilizer, crude and manufactured, gold, organic and inorganic chemicals recorded a negative trend.

Top export destinations are Singapore, UAE, USA, UK, Australia etc. Top import destinations are UAE, Russia, Taiwan, Peru and Angola. India aims to achieve the ambitious target of $2 trillion in exports by 2030.  

The government is making a tremendous effort to fulfil this goal, such as Make In India, Atama Nirbhar Bharat, enhancing digital infrastructure, PLI schemes, and development of special economic zones to increase foreign and domestic investment and create more employment opportunities in the manufacturing and service sector. Apart from that there is also a push for sectoral strategies, like renewable energy, semi-conductor to enhance India’s export potential.

The recent trade deficit cannot be pinned to any singular cause. The increase of global tensions like the Israel-Palestine conflict, and China dumping surplus goods in the US market, had created a weak global demand. Moreover, India imports the majority of its crude oil needs making Indian economy susceptible to fluctuation in global markets. A consistent trade deficit and over-reliance on imports can result in deprecation of the currency further leading to significant job losses in key industries.