• Indian economy to grow at 6.20 per cent during current calendar and 6.3 per cent in coming year.
• The global economic outlook remains vulnerable because of uncertainties looming over it for some time.

Indian economic growth is poised to lead the global economy yet again with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting it to remain the fastest growing among major economies over the next two years. The April 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) says that Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent next year. It means it’s well within the reach of India to maintain a solid lead over global and regional peers. The IMF has reaffirmed India’s economic resilience and the country’s role as a key driver of global growth continues to gain prominence.

Contrary to this, the April 2025 edition of the WEO shows a downward revision in the 2025 forecast compared to the January 2025 update. This trend is largely attributed to the negative impact of heightened global trade tensions and growing uncertainty. However, despite this slight moderation, IMF say that the overall outlook remains strong. This consistency signals not only the strength of India’s macroeconomic fundamentals but also its capacity to sustain momentum in a complex international environment.

 Overview of IMF’s Report

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is the International Monetary Fund’s key report on global economic trends and policy challenges. Published twice a year with interim updates, it provides projections for the near and medium term, covering advanced, emerging, and developing economies. The report supports the IMF’s economic surveillance and guides discussions on policy among member countries.

after several years of overlapping shocks, the April 2025 edition of IMF’s WEO suggests that the global economy has entered a phase of cautious stabilisation where growth remains modest and projections for global output have been revised downward from the January 2025 update. This reflects a steep rise in tariff rates, policy uncertainty, and slowing progress in international cooperation. Global inflation is expected to decline, although at a slower pace than previously anticipated, and downside risks such as trade tensions and volatile financial markets continue to weigh on the outlook.

 India’s Growth in Global Context

For India, however, the growth outlook is relatively more stable. The IMF projects steady expansion for the Indian economy. As per IMF, this steady growth is well supported by firm private consumption, particularly in rural areas. In a global environment marked by uncertainty and subdued growth, India’s resilience stands out, reinforcing its role as a key driver of global economic activity.

The report says that India is projected to remain the fastest-growing large economy for 2025 and 2026, reaffirming its dominance in the global economic landscape. The country’s economy is expected to expand by 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026, outpacing many of its global counterparts. In contrast, the IMF projects global economic growth to be much lower, at 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3.0 per cent in 2026, highlighting India's exceptional outperformance.

The IMF has also revised its growth estimates for other major global economies. China’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to 4.0 per cent, down from 4.6 per cent in the January 2025 edition of the World Economic Outlook. Similarly, the United States of America (USA) is expected to see a slowdown, with its growth revised downward by 90 basis points to 1.8 per cent. Despite these revisions, India’s robust growth trajectory continues to set it apart on the global stage.

Conclusion

India’s economic outlook for current calendar year and very next year remains one of the brightest among major global economies, as highlighted by the IMF. Despite global uncertainties and downward revisions in growth forecasts for other large economies, India is set to maintain its leadership in global economic growth. Supported by strong fundamentals and strategic government initiatives, the country is well-positioned to navigate the challenges ahead. With reforms in infrastructure, innovation, and financial inclusion, India continues to enhance its role as a key driver of global economic activity. The IMF’s projections reaffirm India’s resilience, further solidifying its importance in shaping the global economic future.